“Short of a war or stock market crash…”

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“Short of a war or stock market crash…”

“Short of a war or stock market crash…” | Simplifying The Market

This month, Arch Mortgage Insurance released their spring Housing and Mortgage Market Review. The report explained that an increase in mortgage rates and/or home prices would impact monthly payments this way:

  • A 5% increase in home prices increases payments by roughly 5%
  • A 1% rise in interest rates increases payments by roughly 13% or 14%

That begs the question…

What if both rates and prices increase as predicted?

The report revealed:

“If interest rates and home prices rise by year-end in the ballpark of what most analysts are forecasting, monthly mortgage payments on a new home purchase could increase another 10–15%. That would make 2018 one of the worst full-year deteriorations in affordability for the past 25 years.”

The percent increase in mortgage payments would negatively impact affordability. But, how would affordability then compare to historic norms?

Per the report:

“For the U.S. overall, even if affordability were to deteriorate as forecasted, affordability would still be reasonable by historic norms. That is because the percentage of pre-tax income needed to buy a typical home in 2019 would still be similar to the historical average during 1987–2004. Thus, nationally at least, even with higher rates and home prices, affordability will just revert to historical norms.”

What about home prices?

A decrease in affordability will cause some concern about home values. Won’t an increase in mortgage payments negatively impact the housing market? The report addressed this question:

“Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared…Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.”

To this point, Arch Mortgage Insurance also revealed their Risk Index which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. The index is based on factors such as regional unemployment rates, affordability, net migration, housing starts and the percentage of delinquent mortgages.

Below is a map depicting their projections (the darker the blue, the lower the probability of a price decrease):

“Short of a war or stock market crash…” | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

If interest rates and prices continue to rise as projected, the monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased a year from now will be dramatically more expensive than it would be today.

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josephinetraina
josephinetraina
Josephine’s passion for the beauty and history of Charleston and her depth of knowledge of Charleston’ real estate inventory have made her the Broker of choice for incoming residents of the “Holy City”. As a MD Preferred REALTOR and DRS Agent, she is an advocate for medical professionals, assisting them and their families, guiding them to make an informed decision and excellent real estate investment. As a former Relocation Director, she has an intimate knowledge of the industry and understands what consumers need when relocating to a new city. With over 25 years in the real estate industry and a Broker in the States of South Carolina, Georgia, she handles first-time home buyers to seasoned investors, from historic homes, beach bungalows or condos or lofts. Dedication to understanding clients’ individual needs, putting each client at the center of the process and providing exceptional real estate experiences are the mainstay of her business. Josephine’s goal is to deliver superior service with insight and innovation, realizing that “Owning A Piece Of The America Dream” is the heart of everything we do. As a former managing Broker and Business Development Manager, her focus is on marketing, negotiating the sale and keeping on top of all of the little details that bring a client's transaction to a successful close. She continues to educate herself and hone her skills in order to provide the highest level of professionalism to her clients.

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